Peak and off-peak seasons in coffee shops: 7 key strategies

Arturo A.

Digital Marketing Expert and AI Enthusiast

Jun 24, 2026

Master the high and low seasons in coffee shops with loyalty and automation strategies. Boost sales and retain customers all year round. Come in and learn how!

In a coffee shop in Mexico, the high season usually arrives with the cold weather and the end-of-year holidays (from November to January), with the return to classes, and with dates like Day of the Dead or Mother's Day; the low season usually coincides with the Easter and summer vacations, especially in office and school areas. In the hot months, hot drinks decrease and cold drinks increase, so rather than selling less, you sell differently.

Every area is different: a coffee shop next to a university empties out during vacations, while one in a tourist area fills up. That is why the best guide is your own sales history. Here is an annual calendar for the coffee shop and what to change on the menu in hot and cold weather.

Dos parejas sentadas en una cafetería disfrutando de bebidas mientras revisan una aplicación móvil de fidelización.

Annual Calendar for the Coffee Shop

Use it as a starting point and adjust it with your sales from last year. The dates and weather change depending on your city and area.

Month	What happens	Seasonal drink or product	Promotion	Staff
January	January post-holiday slump; Three Kings Day	Rosca de Reyes, hot chocolate	Rosca to share with coffee; reward for returning during the month	Reinforce on January 6th; normal shifts for the rest of the month
February	Candelaria, Valentine's Day	Champurrado, drinks with chocolate or red berries	Combo for two on the 14th	Extra shift on the afternoon of the 14th
March	Heat begins in many cities; Lent	First cold drinks, meatless bread for Lent	Launch of the cold menu	Normal
April	Easter and school vacations	Frappés, cold brew, flavored waters	In office or school areas: promotion for frequent customers; in tourist areas: reinforce	Adjust according to your area: less staff if it empties, more if tourists arrive
May	Strong heat; Mother's Day (May 10th)	Cold drinks, cakes for gifts	Pre-order for cakes and breakfasts for May 10th	Reinforce on the weekend of the 10th
June	Rainy season in many regions; Father's Day	Cold and hot drinks coexist	Father's Day combo	Normal
July	Summer vacations	Frappés, smoothies, grab-and-go snacks	Promotion to bring back those who went on vacation	Shorter shifts in school areas
August	Back to school	To-go coffee, quick breakfasts	Visit reward for students and teachers	Reinforce mornings
September	Patriotic holidays	Drinks or bread with a Mexican touch	Patriotic menu and promotion for September 15th	Reinforce on the 15th and 16th if your area celebrates
October	Cold weather begins; prelude to Day of the Dead	Spiced drinks, café de olla, first pan de muerto	Launch of the autumn menu	Normal
November	Day of the Dead; Buen Fin (Mexican Black Friday)	Pan de muerto, hot chocolate	Pan de muerto with coffee; sales of coffee beans for gifts	Reinforce weekends
December	Posadas, holidays, and vacations	Ponche, Christmas drinks, cookies	Gift cards, orders for posadas and offices	High activity at the start of the month; adjust during vacations

For Day of the Dead in particular, check what promotions work in coffee shops.

How to build yours: pull your weekly sales from last year, highlight the highest and lowest weeks, and write down what happened in each one (weather, vacations, a special date). That is your real calendar.

Seasonal Menu: What to Change in Hot vs. Cold Weather

You do not need to redesign the entire menu twice a year. It is enough to rotate a part of it and give it visibility.

	Hot Season	Cold Season
Increasing Drinks	Frappés, cold brew, iced coffee, flavored waters, iced teas, smoothies	Spiced lattes, hot chocolate, café de olla, champurrado
Decreasing Drinks	Large hot drinks and very thick beverages	Very sweet drinks with ice
Food	Light snacks to go, fruit, salads, cold sandwiches	Sweet bread, seasonal breads, hot sandwiches
Supplies to Manage	Ice, cold cups and lids, straws, milk (consumption rises with frappés)	Milk and chocolate, spices, insulated cups
Display	Cold drinks and snacks near the register	Seasonal bread in plain sight from the entrance
Typical Promotion	"Happy Hour" for cold drinks in the afternoon	Hot drink plus bread of the day

Ideas for the hot season, when people buy to go: grab-and-go snacks for coffee shops.

Rules for a Seasonal Menu That Doesn't Complicate Your Operation

Few new options. Three or four seasonal drinks are enough; too many options slow down the bar.
Reuse ingredients. The same base (for example, a cinnamon syrup) can work for multiple drinks.
Calculate the cost before launching. Cold drinks require more ingredients (ice, cream, syrup); make sure they leave a profit margin.
Set a start and end date. Urgency helps sales and forces you to measure results.
Measure what worked. At the end of the season, review which drinks sold and which didn't, and decide which ones will return next year.

How to Prepare Your Coffee Shop for the Low Season

Tarjeta de lealtad de una cafetería mostrando el progreso de puntos y recompensas estacionales.

Talk to your frequent customers. In the low season, your best ally is whoever already knows you: a reward for returning within the month or a notification about the new menu for those who haven't visited in weeks works better than a general discount.
Adjust shifts with data. Use your transaction tickets per hour from last year to decide how many people you need on each shift.
Buy less and more often. Avoid getting stuck with ingredients that expire.
Take the opportunity to train staff and to test drinks for the next season.

If you have a restaurant in addition to your coffee shop, also review the guide on high and low season in restaurants, which covers reservations, menu, and kitchen staff.

Frequently Asked Questions About High and Low Season in Coffee Shops

What is the best month to open a coffee shop?

There is no perfect month, but opening before a high season in your area (for example, before back-to-school or cold weather) gives you momentum in your first weeks. Opening during the low season gives you time to adjust operations with less pressure.

How do I know my high season if my coffee shop is new?

While you build your own history, observe the movement in your area: office and school hours, events, and weather. From the first year onward, guide yourself by your weekly sales.

Is it a good idea to close during the low season?

It depends on your area and your fixed costs. Before closing, compare what you sell in those weeks against what it costs you to open. Many coffee shops prefer to reduce hours instead of closing to avoid losing their customers' habits.

What do I do with customers who stop coming during vacations?

Register them when they pay so you can contact them. At the end of the vacation period, a welcome-back message with the new menu or a reward reminds them to return.

Swirvle connects your point-of-sale terminal with the CRM and loyalty program, so you can see your seasonal sales and speak to your frequent customers when you need them most. Discover the POS for coffee shops from Swirvle.